Ongoing Research

Written Work

Overview

My research focuses on forecasting and knowledge aggregation in markets, sports, and geopolitical domains. I develop Bayesian ensemble models that dynamically weight expert and algorithmic forecasts using latent regime structure, with applications to prediction markets, macro forecasting, and sports analytics. Current work includes Bayesian change-point models for forecast aggregation and posterior inference of beliefs in market microstructure data, as well as Markov Decision Processes to model sequential strategic decision-making in football.